Bola Tinubu's narrow victory in the 25 February 2023 presidential election was shaped by some factors.

A former Lagos State governor and candidate of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), Bola Tinubu, was on Wednesday morning declared the winner of the keenly contested 25 February presidential election and was issued the certificate of return later in the day.

In his first go at the presidency, Mr Tinubu beat 17 other contenders and was declared as the president-elect by the Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Mahmood Yakubu, who is the returning officer for the election. Mr Tinubu polled 8,794,726 votes, which was just 36 per cent of the totals vote cast but also about 1.8 million more than his closest rival, Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), garnered in the poll.

The president-elect also scored at least 25 per cent and above votes cast across 30 of Nigeria’s 36 States and Abuja, exceeding the 25 states constitutionally required to be declared the winner.

Among the other major candidates, Atiku recorded 6,984,520 (29 per cent) votes, Peter Obi of the Labour Party got 6,101,533 (25 per cent) votes while Rabiu Kwankwaso of the NNPP came fourth with 1,496,687 votes.

With his victory, Mr Tinubu is poised to become Nigeria’s fifth president of the Fourth Republic and the 16th leader of Africa’s most populous country since its independence in 1960.

Interestingly, the three leading candidates, Mr Tinubu and Atiku won the majority of the votes cast in 12 states each, Mr Obi in 11 states and the Federal Capital Territory, while Mr Kwankwaso won in only his home Kano State.

Mr Tinubu won in Rivers (44 per cent), Borno (54 per cent), Jigawa (46 per cent), Zamfara (59 per cent), Benue (40 per cent), Kogi (53 per cent), Kwara (56 per cent), Niger (48 per cent), Ekiti (65 per cent), Ondo (67 per cent), Oyo (56 per cent) and Ogun (59 per cent).

Atiku Abubakar, former Vice President and PDP Presidential Candidate for 2023 general elections
won in Katsina (46 per cent), Kebbi (51 per cent), Sokoto (49 per cent), Kaduna (41 per cent), Gombe (63 per cent), Yobe (52 per cent), Bauchi (50 per cent), Adamawa (57 per cent) and Taraba(38 per cent).

The former Vice President also won in Osun (48 per cent), Akwa Ibom (39 per cent) and Bayelsa (42 per cent).

On his part, Mr Obi won in Edo (57 per cent ), Cross River (43 per cent) Delta (56 per cent) , Lagos (46 per cent), FCT (61 per cent), Plateau (43 per cent), Imo (77 per cent), Ebonyi ( 80 per cent) Nasarawa (35 per cent), Anambra (95 per cent), Abia (88 per cent) and Enugu (94 per cent) states.

Mr Kwankwaso won in only Kano State (59 per cent).

However, five major factors contributed to Mr Tinubu’s victory on Saturday.

1. Big wins in the South-west
In spite of being beaten by Mr Obi in his home Lagos State and by Atiku in Osun, Mr Tinubu got most of the votes in the South-west region after recording impressive victory in the four other states of the zone – Oyo, Ondo, Ogun and Ekiti.

The votes indicate that a large majority of his kinsmen supported the presidential ambition of the 70-year-old former Lagos governor and most influential politician in the zone.

In Ekiti, Mr Tinubu cruised to victory in all 16 local government areas (LGAs) of the state to defeat his closest rivals, Atiku and Obi.

He polled 201,486 votes while the candidate of the PDP and LP got 89,554 and 11,397 votes respectively.

Similarly, Mr Tinubu floored his rivals in Ogun State. He amassed 341,554 votes from across the 20 local government areas of the state. Atiku and Mr Obi got 123,831 and 85,829 votes to come in second and third positions respectively.

Mr Tinubu polled 369,924 votes to win Ondo State and was trailed by Atiku, who garnered 115,463 votes and Mr Obi who got 47,350 votes.

Despite having a PDP governor, Seyi Makinde, a member of the G5 governors of the opposition party, Mr Tinubu won in all 33 LGAs of Oyo State.

He polled 449,884 votes, followed by Atiku with 182,977 and Mr Obi with 99,110 votes.

2. Narrow losses in Northwest
In 2019, the APC won in the seven Northwestern states —Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, and Zamfara. On Saturday, Mr Tinubu lost five of them to Atiku. However, the defeat did not hurt him much as they were narrow which allowed him to make up for the deficits in Kano, Jigawa and Kano over the PDP candidate.

Mr Tinubu lost three of the four K states ( Kebbi, Katsina and Kaduna) states to Atiku and the other one (Kano) to Kwankwaso.
The president-elect won Jigawa with 421,390 votes, defeating Atiku, who scored 386,587 votes.
The presidential candidate of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), Rabiu Kwankwaso,
The presidential candidate of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), Rabiu Kwankwaso,
In Zamfara, he won in 12 of the 14 LGAs of the state. Mr Tinubu polled 298,396 votes, Atiku scored 193,978 votes, and Mr Kwankwaso scored 4,044 votes. Mr Obi came fourth with 1,660 votes.
Mr Tinubu’s dogged performance across the Northwestern states proved vital in the race as it helped him to protect the lead he gained over his closest rival, Atiku, in the South-west and North-central zones.

3. APC grassroots structure
The president-elect’s victory in some states and narrow losses in others reflect the presence of APC supporters across all the states and regions of the country.
This is most poignantly reflected in Mr Tinubu’s ability to cross the 25 per cent threshold in 30 of Nigeria’s 36 states. Crossing that threshold in two-thirds of the states and the federal capital is required to win the presidency. Mr Tinubu was the only candidate who met that requirement on Saturday as his closest rival, Atiku, could only do it in 21 states. The feat clearly affirmed the APC’s strong base of supporters and their commitment to the victory of their candidate In the race.

Despite losing major states (Kano, Nasarawa, Kebbi, Katsina, Kaduna and Lagos) currently being governed by his party to his rivals, Mr Tinubu still won with about 1.8 million votes.

4. Fractured PDP
Unresolved disputes among the leaders of the main opposition party, PDP, clearly handed an advantage to Mr Tinubu on Saturday.
Peter Obi who eventually became the third force in this election was a member of the party until a few weeks before its primary. Mr Obi was also a running mate to Atiku in the 2019 election.
The PDP learnt nothing from Mr Obi’s exit. Its crises continued after the conclusion of its National Convention in Abuja last year. Atiku’s victory at the primary election and the candidate’s subsequent choice of a running mate in the person of Delta State Governor Ifeanyi Okowa left the PDP bitterly divided.
Several efforts by Atiku to reconcile with the aggrieved individuals were unsuccessful. Instead, the G5 governors who led the dispute with Atiku stuck to their guns. Thus, the PDP went into the election divided and this was fully reflected in the outcome of the election.
For instance, states like Rivers, Oyo and Benue under PDP governors – Nyesom Wike, Seyi Makinde and Samuel Ortom – fell to Mr Tinubu, while Abia and Enugu went to Mr Obi.
Mr Tinubu on Saturday got a whopping 80,239 votes in Mr Wike’s Obio-Akpor LGA home base, which helped him to take a state that had heavily voted PDP in every previous presidential election since 1999. This indicated that Governor Wike worked against the candidate of his party, just like his G5 associates in Oyo and Benue states.
While Mr Makinde threw his weight behind the APC candidate, Mr Ortom supported Mr Obi.
The inability of the PDP to unite after disputes over zoning and power rotation proved costly for Atiku as it stripped him of crucial support in the party’s traditional strongholds.

5. Managing relationship with Buhari
In the runup to the 25 February election, several actions and decisions of President Buhari, especially some of the policies rolled out in the campaign season, were widely interpreted to mean the president did not want Mr Tinubu as his successor.The implementation of the controversial naira redesigning policy plunged millions of Nigerians into hardship and anger against the APC.
Political analysts and even APC party faithful said this situation was a deliberate de-marketing of the APC and its candidates to make them vulnerable at the polls.
Many APC faithful and state governors rose to challenge the president and even sued the federal government and the Central Bank of Nigeria in a bid to curb the cash crunch but the president refused to change course.
Despite all of these, Mr Tinubu managed his relationship with President Buhari well. He refused to attack or criticise the president, instead blaming the people around the latter. Doing so could have worsened the situation for the candidate. He kept his temperament and remained focused on his campaign across the states. That kept the party united.
Mr Tinubu’s calmness and effective management of the party’s leadership worked to his advantage across the northern region.
Although Atiku eventually won in more northern states, Mr Tinubu amassed significant votes largely due to the support of the northern governors.
But in northern states that Atiku lost, such as Kano and Borno, Mr Tinubu recorded massive votes due to having the APC governors solidly behind him.
In the end, the internal conditions of their different parties significantly determined the performances of the president-elect and the runner-up in Nigeria’s 2023 presidential election.

Credit: Premium Times Nigeria

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