By: Ibrahim San

The public analyzes Nigeria’s insecurity through the lenses of ethnicity, religion, and failed governance. These are relevant, but they miss a more驱动 and sinister engine: economics. In the troubled forests of the Northwest and the crisis zones of the Northeast, violence has morphed from a means to an ideological or political end into a lucrative, self-sustaining business enterprise. Understanding this is key to why peace deals fail and military solutions stall.

The Business Model of Banditry:
In states like Zamfara, Katsina, and Kaduna, banditry operates on a diversified portfolio:

Kidnapping for Ransom (KFR): This is the primary revenue stream. It is a scalable, high-margin business with a clear supply chain: intelligence gatherers, armed operators, negotiators, and money launderers. Ransom payments, often in millions, fuel the purchase of more weapons, motorbikes, and loyalty.

Cattle Rustling: Not just a cultural affront, but asset theft. Stolen cattle are moved along established illegal corridors to markets, sometimes across borders, converting livestock into cash.

Taxation and Protection Rackets: Bandits now levy “taxes” on farmers to allow them access to their own farms and on communities for “protection” from… themselves. This mirrors state functions, establishing a parallel, predatory authority.

Illegal Mining: In many zones, banditry provides the muscle for illegal mining of gold and other minerals. The proceeds are then laundered through the traditional and formal financial systems.

The Shadow Economy and Complicity:
This vast enterprise cannot exist without a network of enablers:

Informants: Often poor locals or disillusioned youth, paid for tips on wealthy travelers or vulnerable communities.

Weapons Suppliers: Corridors from Libya and the Sahel feed the arsenal, facilitated by compromised border officials.

Financial Middlemen: Respected community figures sometimes act as negotiators, taking a cut. Some unscrupulous elements in the traditional and modern financial systems help move the cash.

Political Patrons: At the most sinister level, the chaos can serve political ends—displacing communities to alter electoral demographics, or providing a justification for vast security budgets that are themselves subject to corruption.

When conflict becomes an economy, peace becomes a threat to many livelihoods. A successful military campaign or peace deal doesn’t just defeat “bad guys”; it collapses a local black economy, putting informants, smugglers, and even some corrupt security agents out of business. This creates powerful, hidden resistance to genuine resolution.

Therefore, any lasting solution must include an Economic Disarmament Strategy. This means:

Track and disrupt the financial flows using financial intelligence units.

Offer verified, alternative livelihoods for demobilized fighters and the networks that enable them.

Formalize artisanal mining to deprive gangs of this revenue.

Make complicity a high-risk venture with severe, enforced consequences for informants and sponsors within the establishment.

We are not just fighting men with guns. We are fighting a thriving, adaptive black market. We must bankrupt the business of banditry.

Ibrahim Sani 

(Security Analyst & Former Intelligence Officer)